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Trump & Latin America: What to Expect
The possible impact of a Trump presidency for Latin America.
BY JOACHIM BAMRUD
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is again causing speculation in Latin America about his policies for the region if he is able to win the November US elections and return to The White House after serving as president in the 2017-21 period.
In Mexico, airport operator ASUR – which runs the largest airport in the country, Cancun – is concerned about a decline in passenger traffic even before the election, based on negative comments from Trump about the country, El Financiero reports. That comes on the heels of Tesla CEO Elon Musk canceling plans for a mega-factory in Mexico if Trump wins the election.
To what degree would a Trump II Administration impact Latin America in general and Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia specifically? And could Trump pressure the International Monetary Fund to be more lenient with El Salvador?
Latinvex asked Michael Shifter, a Senior Fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and leading Latin America expert.
Latinvex: To what degree would a Trump II Administration impact Latin America in general?
Shifter: Based on his first administration it is clear that Trump does not care about Latin America (he was the first US president in three decades who didn’t attend the Summit of the Americas). It is unlikely to be a top concern (in this respect, not unlike other recent US administrations, Democratic and Republican). The key exception is Mexico, where a combination of issues important for Trump such as migration, drugs (fentanyl), trade and the role of China could have a significant impact on the country, depending on how they are managed. We should expect closer ties with like-minded regional leaders such as Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele, and Trump might tighten the screws on Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela. If the competition with China in the region over trade and investment substantially heats up, there is a chance that regional relations will deteriorate. But aside from Mexico Trump will probably not focus much attention on the region.
BRAZIL AND MEXICO
Latinvex: To what degree would a Trump II Administration impact Brazil and Mexico specifically?
Shifter: US-Mexico relations are very complex and need to be treated with special care on both sides. It will be important to get a better understanding of the incoming Sheinbaum administration’s principles and priorities in its relations with the US once it begins in October. Assuming that the new president will continue much of AMLO’s agenda, the relationship will probably be largely transactional, as has been the case over the past six years. As long as Mexico is willing and able to take serious steps to reduce unwanted migration to the US, the Trump administration will likely accommodate Sheinbaum on other issues. On some critical issues like fentanyl, the outcome of the US Congressional elections in the Senate and House will be very important. Bilateral tensions could increase over disagreements on such issues as China’s growing economic relations with Mexico. But migration is likely to continue to dominate the bilateral policy agenda. With Trump and Lula in charge, the US and Brazil are likely to keep their distance. It is hard to imagine joint efforts on hemispheric issues. The best to hope for is to keep relations on track and prevent any erosion.
Latinvex: Do you expect more actions on the US-Mexico border as seen in Texas, where Governor Abbott ordered additional inspections that paralyzed cargo shipments?
Shifter: Abbott will do whatever Trump wants him to do regarding Mexico and the border. It is highly improbable that Trump will delegate any border issues to the Texas state government.
COLOMBIA AND ARGENTINA
Latinvex: To what degree would a Trump II Administration impact Colombia and Argentina specifically?
Shifter: A Trump II administration is unlikely to pay much attention to Colombia or Argentina. Given skyrocketing coca production, bilateral cooperation between the US and Colombia could be significantly reduced or end entirely, though much will depend on the new composition of the US Senate and House. It is hard to imagine that President Trump and President Gustavo Petro would have a very productive relationship. Both are impetuous, polarizing figures who would likely clash. In 2026, under a new Colombian administration, conditions for a closer relationship could improve. Trump might shower Javier Milei with some extra rewards and benefits given the Argentine president’s admiration and praise of him. Even so, the relationship will be far from the “carnal relations” that characterized US-Argentine ties under Carlos Menem and George HW Bush.
EL SALVADOR
Latinvex: Will President Biden’s anti-corruption Northern Triangle policy end in favor of closer relations with the government of El Salvador?
Shifter: I doubt it will end with closer relations, but perhaps a pat on the back or some minor reward.
Latinvex: Could a Trump II Administration pressure the IMF to be more lenient with El Salvador?
Shifter: Applying such pressure on the IMF is conceivable, but for the Trump II Administration it will also be important for Bukele to do something in return such as prevent emigration from El Salvador and further points South. This would be in keeping with Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy.
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