Will likely continue Biden policies, but add more focus on environment, labor and human rights.

BY LATINVEX STAFF

Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has close family ties with Latin America and the Caribbean. Her father, Donald J Harris, a professor emeritus at Stanford University known for studying development economics, is from Jamaica.

What will Harris’ Latin America policy likely be? How will she differ from President Joe Biden?

“There is likely to be a great deal of continuity with Biden administration policy if Kamala Harris becomes president,” says Cynthia Arnson, Distinguished Fellow and Former Director of the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center. “She is likely to double down on the “root causes” strategy for Central America’s Northern Triangle, a policy initiative devised by the Obama administration, continued by Biden, and for which she had principal responsibility.”

With a father from Jamaica, Harris is also likely to pay more attention to the Caribbean, including on issues that the Biden administration has emphasized, such as climate change, although it is unclear what, if anything, she would do differently regarding Haiti, she adds.

“Much of a Harris administration’s policy toward the region would continue to be driven by immigration pressures,” Arnson says. “She most likely would continue to seek the cooperation of transit countries such as Panama and Mexico in deterring migrants before they reach the U.S. border.”

Harris would potentially have better chemistry with Mexico’s president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, but it remains unclear whether US-Mexico cooperation on counter-drug and other security issues will improve, she says.

“Policy regarding South America is likely to be one of benign neglect, including toward Colombia, where U.S. relations with the Petro administration have been strained,” Arnson says. “Given her background, Harris may forge new initiatives regarding race in Latin America, seeking ways to provide opportunities to Afro-descendent populations that have faced centuries of discrimination. If Harris moves away from Biden’s emphasis on re-shoring manufacturing investment to the United States, nearshoring may have more of a chance of becoming a significant opportunity for the region.”

Harris’ approach is to listen to a broad array of stakeholders, act, follow up, and then adjust tactics as needed, Jason Marczak, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, wrote in a recent analysis.

“This approach can take time to implement, but it also proves adaptive to unexpected challenges,” he says.

In one example of her “listen, act, then follow up” approach, Harris traveled to Guatemala and Mexico in June 2021 and then a month later, she rolled out a five-pillar strategy that revolved around working with in-country partners to address the root causes of Central American migration, noting that “migration to our border is also a symptom of much larger issues” and admitting from the start that “progress will not be instantaneous,” Marczak points out.

Harris subsequently visited Honduras in January 2022 and in March this year she welcomed Guatemala’s new president, Bernardo Arévalo, to the White House for more discussions.

“This approach suggests that Harris could govern in a manner where decisions are carefully thought out and where a multitude of factors are taken into account before acting,” Marczak argues.

In its three years, the five-pillar strategy has produced more than $5.2 billion in commitments from companies and organizations to invest in the region while supporting local development in areas of high emigration, he adds.

“And there are signs that migration from the region is now slowing,” Marczak says.

TRADE

Harris has a track record as a critic of free trade, but will likely continue Biden’s trade policy, albeit make some changes favoring environmental issues and labor rights.

“If elected president, Harris is likely to continue Biden’s agenda despite her previous … rhetoric,” according to a recent analysis by the Global Americans think tank. “Her past … opposition to trade deals like the USMCA and Trans-Pacific Partnership suggest she would incorporate broader environmental considerations into future negotiations.”

If elected president, Harris’ government will oversee the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

In 2020, she was one of 10 senators to vote against the pact, citing concerns about a lack of protections for U.S. workers and the environment and she also opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)—which included Mexico, Chile and Peru—while on the campaign trail for her California Senate seat in 2016, the Americas Society/Council of the Americas points out in an analysis of Harris and Latin America.

As vice president, Harris has supported Biden’s international economic policies, which emphasize government-led investments in the developing world rather than traditional trade negotiations, and she has focused on addressing the root causes of illegal migration from Latin America and strengthening U.S. relationships with Central America and Mexico, Global Americans points out.

“Harris’s commitment to the international rules-based order could also revitalize the World Trade Organization, which has struggled under both the Trump and Biden administrations’ refusal to appoint new judges for the WTO’s Appellate Body,” it adds.

VENEZUELA, CUBA, NICARAGUA

Harris will likely make human rights a key cornerstone of her policy in Latin America.

“Harris will likely focus on supporting democracy and human rights, and addressing humanitarian issues in the region,” Global Americans predicts.

Harris supported the Biden Administration’s expansion of Temporary Protected Status for migrants from Venezuela and as a senator in 2019, she criticized violent repression carried out by Nicolás Maduro’s regime, AS/COA points out.

More recently, she said the United States stood with the people of Venezuela and urged the release of all polling data after the official elections authority announced fraudulent results.

Before becoming vice president, Harris indicated support for ending the embargo against Cuba, but during Biden’s term, she joined him in condemning the regime’s violence and backing the imposition of increased sanctions on its leaders, AS/COA points out.

“Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba appear likely to be major tests for a Harris presidency, especially if she promotes a more progressive human-rights-centered foreign policy,” Global Americans says. “We could expect Harris to continue tough rhetoric against these regimes and to work multilaterally with other powers in the region to promote democratic change. However, we are unlikely to see threats of U.S. military force or increased sanctions that might worsen humanitarian situations, as doing so would violate her progressive ideals. Instead, Harris could use her progressive credentials to build more collaborative relationships with moderate left-wing governments in the region, such as the Lula administration in Brazil and the Boric administration in Chile, with the goal of placing greater pressure on authoritarian and non-democratic regimes.”

CARIBBEAN

With her Jamaican roots, a Harris Administration will likely have closer relations with the Caribbean than previous US governments.

“Though it has been less high-profile than her Central America work, Harris has also given substantial attention to addressing the many significant challenges facing the United States’ Caribbean neighbors,” Marczak points out. “As she has explained it, doing so is a US national security priority that cannot be overlooked.”

In June 2023, just over a year after virtually hosting leaders of fifteen Caribbean nations, Harris became the highest-ranking US official to visit The Bahamas, where she co-hosted the US-Caribbean Leaders Meeting.

“In keeping with her typical approach, Harris met with Caribbean leaders first to hear their priorities before crafting a strategy,” Marczak says. “Her priorities started with climate change and the energy transition, expanded to food security, and then extended to security and arms trafficking. At that June 2023 meeting, she announced $100 million of US assistance to address these issues, including Haiti’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.”

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