In In
US president Donald Trump and Colombian president Gustavo Petro played a key role in the largest US-Colombia crisis in nearly 30 years. (Photos: The White House and Colombian President’s Office)
Thursday, January 30, 2025

Chronicle of a Crisis Foretold

A one-day US-Colombia crisis is a sign of things to come from Trump and Petro.

BY LATINVEX EDITORS

Ever since Donald Trump won the November elections, experts had warned of the risk of tensions between the new US government and the radical president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro.

However, even the most pessimistic observers were shocked by the timing (less than a week into Trump’s second presidency) and scale of a one-day crisis on January 26.

After Petro in a 3.41 am post on X, formerly known as Twitter, announced he would block two flights from the US carrying deported Colombians, Trump issued a dramatic response that included 25% tariffs on imports from Colombia (that would go up to 50% after one week), emergency banking and financial sanctions, increased inspections on Colombian passenger and cargo flights and visa entry denial for Petro, his family and close allies.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT

If implemented, the measures would have plunged Colombia’s already weak economy into a full crisis. The country’s gross domestic product grew 1.6% last year and a mere 0.6% in 2023, according to data from the International Monetary Fund.

Colombian exports to the United States reached $16.1 billion in 2023, while imports from the United States stood at $17.7 billion, according to US Census Bureau. The United States is the largest market for Colombian exports, accounting for about a third of the total and Colombia is the United States’ third-largest trade partner in Latin America.

Oil, gold, coffee and flowers are the top exports to the US. Colombia is the fourth-largest oil exporter to the US, Colombia accounts for 20% of US coffee imports and Colombia is the top exporter of flowers to the US. In turn, the US accounts for 70% of Colombian flower exports and the US tariffs would have hit the flower sector just as it was preparing for its key Valentine’s Day sales.

The January 26 crisis in US-Colombian relations shows the new reality for Latin America – and the rest of the world. Trump is more than willing to immediately use tariffs and other measures to punish actions he dislikes.

While Petro was at fault for the crisis, the United States could easily have responded without threatening to paralyze Colombia’s economy.

“Trump’s retaliation goes far beyond pressuring the Petro administration and will no doubt hurt the most pro-US segment of the Colombian population—those with international ties and trade to and from the US; also the segment of the population where Petro enjoys the weakest support,” wrote FinanceColombia publisher Loren Moss in an analysis before the crisis ended.

And although the crisis has been averted for now, the measures Trump threatened are now hanging over Colombia and any other country that provokes Trump.

“Some scars will remain and now affect confidence, while unnecessarily putting Colombia on the Trump radar,” Andres Pardo, chief Latam macro strategist at XP Investments, told Bloomberg. “Future clashes cannot be ruled out. This was not the full stop.”

Meanwhile, Colombia is also on edge over the annual US certification process of its fight against drug trafficking. While it passed muster in September last year under President Joe Biden despite Petro’s complete failure to stem rising cocaine production, there is now major concern that Trump will decertify Colombia this year. That would be the first time in nearly 30 years Colombia would be decertified after President Bill Clinton did so in 1996 following revelations of drug cartel financing of the campaign of Colombian president Ernesto Samper.

If Trump decides to decertify Colombia that could be another justification for implementing tariffs and other sanctions.

And there is also a very strong risk that Trump may be provoked even before that by another offense from Petro.

PETRUMP

Despite political differences, the Colombian president and Trump actually share many similarities, leading one observer to call them “Petrump.” In a column in Colombian newspaper El Pais, Bernardo Peña lists a wide range of traits the two leaders share.

They are both megalomaniacs who prefer being feared than loved, egomaniacs with a very high opinion of themselves and little empathy with others, narcissists who seek constant admiration and attention, manipulators who never accept criticism of any kind nor admit mistakes, incapable of team work – which results in frequently changing cabinet ministers and other close advisors — and resentful and vindictive.

Added to those traits is the fact that both Trump and Petro love spending a considerable time on social media – often during the night when most people are sleeping — throwing out insults, attacks and provocations.

Case in point. The latest crisis was clearly provoked by Petro’s night-time/early morning post on X. However, even after Trump announced the draconian US response to Petro’s move, the Colombian president couldn’t help himself. Instead of trying to defuse the situation and avoid what would be a catastrophe for Colombia’s economy and hundreds of thousands of jobs, Petro poured on one insult after the other.

In a long rant on X, Petro managed to come up with the following response:

“Trump, I don’t really like traveling to the US, it’s a bit boring….I don’t shake hands with white slavers…Your blockade doesn’t scare me; because Colombia, in addition to being the country of beauty, is the heart of the world.”

As an afterthought, he then added that Colombia would impose 50% tariffs on imports from the United States.

And Petro’s initial condemnation of the use of military planes, saying deportees were being treated like criminals and that his administration is “the opposite of the Nazis”, seemed to rile Trump more than similar spats with Mexico and Brazil, Reuters reported.

In the end, the crisis was resolved not because of Petro, but despite him. Instead, a broad coalition of Petro aides (including Colombia’s ambassador to the US and the outgoing and incoming foreign ministers), former presidents Alvaro Uribe and Juan Manuel Santos and the leaders of the country’s top business groups helped defuse the situation.

PREPARE FOR THE WORST

Colombia is now hoping for the best, but also needs to prepare for the worst.

Ironically enough, Trump’s action will force Colombia to focus on boosting trade with other countries than the United States, including China. Before the latest threats from Trump, Colombia was seen as a vibrant alternative to China for the US in Latin America in contrast to other South American countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and Peru, where China has replaced the US as the top trading partner.

However, with Trump in The White House, trade with the US will become somewhat like a game of Russian Roulette.

“You have to wonder if there’s a Pyrrhic victory here, because the more countries see this threat, the more they start turning and looking at ways that they can diversify their own trading relationships,” Josh Lipsky, senior director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, told Bloomberg.

The action from Trump may indicate how he will treat other countries as well, including Panama and Denmark, which are facing threats from the US President to take the Panama Canal and Greenland, respectively.

“Any asset anywhere in the world, and especially those found in financially fragile developing nations, can be buffeted by a tweet or an off-hand remark at any moment,” a Bloomberg analysis said.

The US-Colombia crisis also shows other leaders how not to behave. Unlike Petro, Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum has not retorted to insults against the United States, but rather emphasizing hope that the two countries can work together.

While the latest crisis in Colombia was resolved, it is by no means a permanent solution. We therefore believe it is only a question of time before there is a new crisis in US-Colombian relations.

As Colombia’s former foreign minister and vice president Marta Lucía Ramírez told El Pais (Spain): “Unfortunately, it is not unlikely that the president might once again commit another monumental suicidal operation.”

 

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