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Venezuela As US Protectorate
Nicolas Maduro presided over a government that closely resembles the Cosa Nostra.
BY BEATRICE E. RANGEL
To say that the current situation in Venezuela is atypical is an obvious understatement. The country is under an uncompleted US protectorate after the head of state was arrested and brought to court in the United States on charges of drug trafficking, money laundering, and wire fraud among other crimes. Executor of the protectorate is Ms Delcy Rodriguez member of the ruling team headed by the deposed Nicolas Maduro. With Ms Rodriguez the rest of the governing team under Maduro continues to conduct business.
To many this situation is unsettling. To others it is uncomprehensible. Yet to others deplorable. And all are right BECAUSE IN VENEZUELA we a treading an unchartered territory.
What makes the Venezuelan conundrum unique?
- This is the first time that US must deal with a government structure that is the visible arm of organized crime. In short nowhere else in the hemisphere organized crime is government as was the case in Venezuela. Indeed, Mr Maduro presided over a government that closely resembles the Cosa Nostra Commission. A body where heads of criminal organizations devise strategies to destroy opponents assign territories among Commission members, exact levies, and divide the spoils of business.
That organization kidnapped sovereignty and would not relinquish power but through force.
Such a situation had not happened in the Americas since the Times of Port Royale.
- Venezuela civil society obsessively believes in democracy and has thus tread all democratic roads to regain freedom. From monumental and peaceful protest marches to recall referenda to winning elections under the most biased playing field Venezuela’s civic society kept faith in democratic means to change course.
- The country is the depository of the largest oil reserves in the world. It indeed is heavy and impregnated with sulfur and other unsuitable materials but is enough to feed the US energy needs 14 years from now when the milking of the Permian rocks comes to an end.
Trace number one explains why the regime survived 5 US presidents under whose watch, democratic backsliding in Venezuela was worse when they left office. All of them including President Trump 1 treated the dilemma as a geopolitical issue subject to the rules of diplomacy. They of course failed. Trump 2 however learned from past mistakes and treated the problem with the right medicine: law enforcement.
Trace number 2 counsels caution in the process of dismantling the regime because the criminal apparatus has one leg too many that cold go underground and create terrorist cells specifically tailored to deploy a terror machine like that unleashed by the Ayatollahs in Iran.
Trace number three calls for a gradual establishment of rule of law to create environment conducive to FDI inflows.
These particularities lead us to believe that both the US and the Venezuelan civic society are stuck with the only form of governance that meets the particular requirements of the situation. That of course is a protectorate which is a state that is protected by a stronger country, in our hemisphere the US has functioned as protectorate power on several occasions.
- Panama (1903–1936): Following its separation from Colombia, Panama became a U.S. protectorate, with the U.S. controlling the Canal Zone and intervening to maintain order.
- Dominican Republic (1905–1924): Under the Roosevelt Corollary, the U.S. took control of Dominican customs and later occupied the country from 1916 to 1924 to ensure debt repayment and stability.
- Haiti (1915–1934): The U.S. occupied Haiti and established a protectorate relationship, controlling finances and police forces.
- Nicaragua (1912–1933): U.S. Marines were stationed there to protect American interests and manage the government.
This of course is no happy ending to the ordeal faced by Venezuela’s civic society who sacrificed everything to participate in elections that crushingly chose Edmundo Gonzalez as president in July 2024.
But let us get real. With a country organized as a criminal entity: would Mr Gonzalez or the acclaimed leader of the resistance movement Maria Corina Machado survive a reentry to Venezuela more than a few weeks or months? The sincere answer is NO. Somehow the regime apparatus would guarantee their demise from life. Anarchy and bloodshed would ensue. And this is the right ambiance for the criminal organization to regenerate itself.
The question then boils down to the length of the protectorate. How long will it take to dissemble the criminal organization that has ruled Venezuela for at least 20 years?
While there are no historic instances from which to extract counsel we could make some educated guesses.
The first deals with the strength of the threat that unites crime bosses in Venezuela. Usually, it is bounty what keeps criminal organizations together. In the case of Venezuela, it has suddenly disappeared. Then there are the properties of the business. All illicit businesses flower in the darkness. Venezuela is now under a potent spotlight that makes drug logistics extremely complicated. Same goes for gold and other treasures exploited by irregular groups sch the Colombian Liberation Army; Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations that support the criminal structure in Venezuela. After the clear show of military cum intelligence superiority displayed in Maduro’s extraction these groups must now be back home or in Ecuador or Nicaragua. The ruling command in Venezuela will thus have to cover its expenses with their salaries. A thing they have not done in 20 years. Blues will take over their spirits. Internecine disputes will flourish and the bottom of the pyramid will soon rebel. This is called in political sciences: Implosion.
After the implosion, the matter of concern is rebuilding institutions with people who care about governance. Which takes us to the next assumption. Assuming that the protectorate does not extinguishes the democratic drive of the Venezuelan civic society rescuing democratic institutions from authoritarianism could easily take a decade or at two. We will probably see this in term two of Mr Trump’s successor.
I thus do not see the protectorate stepping sideways during Mr Trump’s mandate.
In fact, past protectorates lasted between 19-33 years.
I know this is not the happy ending we all dreamed of, but the degree of institutional destruction and infrastructure devastation in Venezuela do not warrant another solution than the current takeover of the country to root out a criminal organization that ruled the country for two decades. And to succeed you need time.
Beatrice Rangel is the Managing Director for AMLA Consulting. She served as chief of staff and minister of the secretariat under the administration of President Carlos Andrés Pérez in Venezuela.
This article is based on a presentation to the Foreign Policy Association. Edited and republished with permission from the author.
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