|
Quoted
Key quotes on Latin America
“People make a lazy analogy with Milei and Trump. On the surface they may have similarities. But in reality, under the hood, the specifics each of them propose are diametrically opposed.”
Alejo Czerwonko, UBS AG’s chief investment officer for Americas emerging markets, quoted by Bloomberg, December 4, 2024.
“It was a bucket of cold water.”
Ricardo Cará Monteiro, chief investment officer at EQI Asset, on frustration with Brazilian president luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s long-anticipated fiscal plan, which turned out to be much worse than the market had expected, as quoted by business newspaper Valor Economico, December 2, 2024.
“I think there’s a lot of confidence that if there is a path towards normality, this is probably the only administration that could do it.”
Thomas Haugaard, portfolio manager of EM debt at Janus Henderson, on investor optimism for Milei government in Argentina, as quoted by Reuters, November 20, 2024.
“Isolationists, protectionism and trade wars lead only to recessions, conflict and poverty.”
Vietnam President Luong Cuong warned in his keynote address at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Lima, Peru, as quoted by Bloomberg, November 14, 2024.
“The reality is that at the moment Mexico is not safe.”
U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, who blames former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, as quoted by Reuters, November 13, 2024.
“If they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I am going to immediately impose a 25 per cent tariff on everything they send into the United States of America. If that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 50, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75. Then I’ll make it 100.”
Donald Trump speaking about the top US trade partner Mexico at campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina on November 5, 2024.
“Every damn thing that they sell into the United States is going to have like a 25% (tariff) until they stop drugs from coming in.”
Donald trump at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,as quoted by Reuters, November 4, 2024.
“I think the speed at which the situation in Argentina has been changing has impressed absolutely everybody.”
Nubank CEO David Vélez said of Javier Milei’s turnaround efforts, as quoted by Bloomberg, October 29, 2024.
“Even the threat of tariffs will create havoc. It will further reduce Mexico’s long-term economic growth. And it could drive migration to the United States and Canada.”
Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, an economics professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, on threat of Trump tariffs, as quoted by the Los Angeles Times, October 27, 2024.
“Mr. Trump would like to have a loaded tariff gun by his side at all times so that his itchy finger could pull the trigger whenever he sees some country getting out of line.”
Latin America columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady in The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2024 on the pledges by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico.
“This is no judicial reform, it’s revenge. That’s what it is.”
Mexican opposition lawmaker Ruben Moreira of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), on the judicial overhaul approved by Congress, as quoted by Reuters, October 14, 2024.
“It amounts to a significant capitulation from the world’s richest man, who has used his clash with Moraes as a free-speech crusade against the South American nation’s efforts to police online content.”
Bloomberg, October 9, 2024, on Elon Musk agreeing to all of the demands by Brazil’s Supreme Court in order to return after a ban.
“It’s just one thing after the other right now keeping the investor narrative a bit frail.”
Gilberto Hernandez-Gomez, a strategist at BBVA in New York, on the constant risks for investors in Colombia under radical president Gustavo Petro, as quoted by Bloomberg, September 27, 2024.
“It’ll be like young, recent medicine graduates performing open heart surgery. Uncertainty is going to be the common thread throughout this tragedy.”
Mexico-based Juan Francisco Torres-Landa, Leader of Hogan Lovells’ Latin America Practice, on Mexico’s judicial reform, which entails electing 7,000 judges by popular vote, as quoted by the Financial Times, September 16, 2024.
“The damage that this reform will mean for the country is incalculable.”
Mexican opposition Senator Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas, from the Movimiento Ciudadano party, during the debate over President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s judicial reform, as quoted by Bloomberg, September 12, 2024.
“AMLO seems quite happy to take all kinds of risks and have Sheinbaum deal with the consequences.”
Duncan Wood, president of the Pacific Council on International Policy, on Mexico’s outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum, as quoted by Barron’s, August 30, 2024.
“This means a regression to the worst times of authoritarianism. This is not a judicial reform, but a return to a concentration of power.”
Mexican opposition lawmaker Margarita Zavala during the congressional debate over President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s judicial reform, as quoted by Bloomberg, August 26, 2024.
“We are heading towards an unprecedented constitutional crisis, a crisis that, if not stopped, will leave deep scars in our social fabric.”
Juana Fuentes, president of the union that brings together Mexican magistrates and judges, on plans by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to reform the judiciary, as quoted by Reuters, August 21, 2024.
“He and his cronies must come to believe that staying is more dangerous than leaving.”
Elliott Abrams, a Senior Fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations who served as Special Representative for Venezuela in the administration of Donald Trump in a CFR blog post, August 23, 2024.
“It is becoming increasingly difficult to see the Maduro regime willingly concede power.”
Jason Keene at Barclays Plc quoted by Bloomberg, August 2, 2024.“
Maduro’s stay will prolong the entire restructuring process. That has a high cost of opportunity for creditors.”
Alejandro Arreaza, an economist at Barclays, on Venezuela’s debt restructuring outlook after President Nicolas Maduro’s election fraud, as quoted by Bloomberg, July 29, 2024
“To take such a step would be tantamount to calling for a rebellion on both sides of the border because of the damage it would cause to people, industry and commerce.”
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Donald Trump’s proposal to shut the US-Mexico border, as quoted by Bloomberg, July 24, 2024.
“The uselessness of this project was foreseeable. In reality, the train doesn’t go anywhere you couldn’t get to by highway before.”
Jose “Pepe” Urbina, a Mexican diver who opposes the $30 billion Maya train because its steel pilings have damaged the caverns he has explored for decades, as quoted by AP, July 15, 2024.
“We want Guyana to become the first really developed nation in South America.”
Ashni Singh, Guyana’s finance minister, as quoted by The Guardian, July 8, 2024.
“It’s the most important milestone since Milei became president.”
Argentine political analyst Gustavo Córdoba, on Congress approving Milei’s reform package, as quoted by AFP, June 21, 2024.
“The message that there will be no control in spending is becoming increasingly clear. The finance minister seems increasingly isolated.”
Leonardo Monoli, chief investment officer at Azimut Brasil Wealth Management, on President Lula’s aggressive fiscal policy, as quoted by Bloomberg, June 13, 2024.
“They are wrong, respectfully, if they are thinking that we are going to go back on reforming the judiciary, which is rotten, which is dominated by corruption, just because there is financial nervousness.”
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, as quoted by Reuters, June 12, 2024.
“It would be like AMLO, but with some improvements.”
Gabriel Casillas, chief Latin America economist at Barclays, on Claudia Sheinbaum as president, as quoted by Bloomberg, May 29, 2024.
“The removal of Petrobras’ CEO and some other signs of increasing levels of intervention from the Lula administration does not help with investor confidence.”
Christine Phillpotts, portfolio manager for emerging markets value strategy at Ariel Investments in New York, as quoted by Bloomberg, May 22, 2024.
“The destruction of the fight against corruption in the country is relentless.”
Transparency International on X, formerly Twitter, commenting on the ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to overturn two prominent ‘Car Wash’ corruption convictions, as quoted by the Financial Times, May 22, 2024.
“Before Lava Jato, it was completely unthinkable that certain players would ever face prison. What these decisions seem to establish is that things have not changed.”
Filipe Campante, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, on the ruling by Brazil’s Supreme Court to overturn two prominent ‘Car Wash’ corruption convictions, as quoted by the Financial Times, May 22, 2024.
“I see many companies starting to think twice about investing here . . . there are very, very big risks on security.”
Unnamed top banker in Mexico on worsening security situation, as quoted by the Financial Times, May 21, 2024.
“We’ll promote a government that’s pro-investment, and pro-private enterprise.”
Panama’s president-elect Jose Raul Mulino to supporters in his victory speech, as quoted by Bloomberg, May 5, 2024.
“This is a first fundamental step to remove Argentina from the swamp it has been the last decades.”
Argentine President Javier Milei, on April 30, 2024, after the country’s lower house approved his omnibus reform bill.
“We are making possible the impossible even with the majority of politics, unions, the media and most economic actors against us.”
Argentine President Javier Milei announcing Argentina’s first quarterly fiscal surplus since 2008, as quoted by Bloomberg, April 22, 2024.
“This is the time to invest in Argentina.”
Eduardo Elsztain (chairman and chief executive officer of real estate company IRSA), praising Argentine President Javier Milei’s reforms, as quoted by by Bloomberg, April 17, 2024.
“There’s probably not a more thankless job in Brazil than being the president of Petrobras.”
Schreiner Parker, managing director for Latin America at Rystad Energy, on the speculation about current Petrobras CEO being replaced, as quoted by Bloomberg, April 4, 2024.
“Businesspeople working in Latin America consistently perceive significant corruption risk in their operations.”
Matteson Ellis, Miller & Chevalier’s Latin America Practice Lead, on the results of the firm’s 2024 Latin America Corruption Survey, April 2, 2024.
“Given past experiences of undue political pressure did not end well, we see these incidents having an impact beyond the companies mentioned . . . ultimately making it harder for Brazil to attract investments”
Eduardo Figueiredo, head of Brazil equities at the UK asset manager Abrdn, on President Lula’s interventions in Petrobras and Vale, as quoted by the Financial Times, March 25, 2024.
“We were in a more favorable scenario, and it has gotten more cloudy. We don’t know yet if it will turn into a big storm.”
Priscila Araujo, a portfolio manager at O3 Capital, on Brazil President Lula’s recent interventions in Petrobras and Vale, as quoted by Bloomberg, March 18, 2024.
“Anyone who has been around Brazil for a while is well aware of the risk of Lula intervening. The question will be how much is bark and how much is bite.”
Greg Lesko, a portfolio manager at Deltec Asset Management in New York, as quoted by Bloomberg, March 18, 2024.
“It’s a simple recipe and I didn’t invent it . . . we don’t have to reinvent the wheel.”
Dominican President Luis Abinader on combining pro-business policies with improved social spending, as quoted by the Financial Times, March 17, 2024.
“The risk of investing in Petrobras has increased after recent events.”
Goldman Sachs on Lula’s intervention to stop Petrobras extraordinary dividends and change its investment focus, as quoted by Bloomberg, March 13, 2024.
“We’re going to pay the damn bonds. Some day, soon.”
Mexican magnate Ricardo Salinas on his broadcaster TV Azteca planning to pay overdue bonds to international creditors, as quoted by Reuters, February 14, 2024.
“We can implement dollarization in 2025. We are getting closer and closer to dollarization.”
Argentine President Javier Milei, as quoted by Ambito, February 10, 2024.
“They’re very similar to the beasts who celebrated the default in 2001/2002. Come and see the enemies of a better Argentina”
Argentine President Javier Milei on legislators and governors who opposed his omnibus reform package, February 7, 2024.
“AMLO’s logic is a political and ideological one, and he cares little about the financial aspects of his favorite infrastructure projects.”
Duncan Wood, senior advisor to the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, as quoted by the Inter-American Dialgue´s weekly Latin America Advisor, January 26, 2024.
“He [Mantega] doesn’t seem to be a person with the skills and qualifications that an investor would like to see in a company like Vale.”
The representative of a major asset manager that owns shares in the company, on the Brazilian government’s pressure to impose former finance minister Guido Mantega as new CEO of Vale, as quoted by Valor Economico, January 26, 2024.
“In a world of scarce capital and pretty average commodity prices, no one is prepared to invest in Latin American political lunacy.”
John Price, Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence, on the effects of leftist governments in Latin America, January 22, 2024.
“If Guido Mantega is appointed, it will undoubtedly be a risk.”
Igor Guedes, analyst at Genial Investimentos, on the possibility that the former Brazilian finance minister is appointed CEO of mining giant Vale, as quoted by E-Investidor, January 22, 2024.
“The market is celebrating the pragmatism of Minister Caputo and team.”
Alberto Bernal, Chief Strategist at XP Investments, on Argentine bonds gaining during the first month of Argentine President Javier Milei, as quoted by Bloomberg, January 12, 2024.
“Football matches are 90 minutes, they don’t end until the final whistle.”
Argentine President Javier Milei on a court ruling suspending his labor reform, as quoted by The Buenos Aires Times, January 5, 2024.
“To the victor belongs the crisis.”
Richard M. Sanders, Senior Fellow, Western Hemisphere at the Center for the National Interest, writing in Global Americans,
November 7, 2023, on the presidential elections in Argentina.
“López Obrador’s legacy will be a much weaker Mexican state, a more polarized nation and a poorer country that has higher levels of violence and is less connected to and in sync with the world than when he took office.”
Arturo Sarukhan, board member of the Inter-American Dialogue and former Mexican ambassador to the United States, as quoted by the he Inter-American Dialogue’s daily Latin America Advisor, November 6, 2023.
“Here in the Dominican Republic, 80 to 85 percent of wealth is held by the private sector. We don’t have a PDVSA, Petrobras or Pemex.”
Maximo Vidal, the Dominican banker who has lead Citibank for the Dominican Republic and Haiti since 2005, on why local governments embrace business, as quoted by Global Miami, June 2023.
“There is a land grab — or air grab, if you prefer — in Latin America generally now between the various carriers. Every player sees opportunities to add capacity.”
Mike Arnot, an analyst at Cirium, as quoted by the Financial Times, June 20, 2023.
“What is bad for Petro is good for investment, for the dollar and for the country.”
Juan Pablo Vieira, CEO of JP Tactical Trading, on Colombia’s radical president Gustavo Petro’s latest setback, as quoted by La Republica, June 6, 2023.
“It’s a step back to the Mexico of the 60s, the 70s, where companies had to sit down and negotiate directly with the president and no one knows what the rules are.”
Guillermo Garcia Sanchez, associate professor at Texas A&M University School of Law, on AMLO’s expropriation of Grupo Mexico rail, as quoted by Bloomberg News, May 23, 2023.
“Central Bank is not sadist and needs help.”
Arminio Fraga, former president of Brazil’s Central Bank and founding partner of Gávea Investimentos, on the bank’s rate policy influenced by the government’s expansionary fiscal policies, as quoted by Valor Economico, May 22, 2023.
“AMLO Says What’s Yours Can Be His in Mexico.”
The Wall Street Journal editorial, May 22, 2023, on the takeover of a part of Grupo Mexico’s railway on May 19, 2023.
“Latin America is beating the world at wasting opportunities.”
Financial Times Latin America Editor Michael Stott, May 10, 2023
“We strongly believe that Peru is today in a much better position than it was six months ago.”
Credicorp Ltd CEO Gianfranco Ferrari on a conference call, as quoted by Bloomberg, May 8, 2023.
“Is he crazy? This citizen cannot be speaking the truth…Who does he have a commitment with? With Brazil? He doesn’t.”
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva criticizing Central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto after the latest decisión to keep the interest rate at 13.7%. His comments were made to the press May 6, 2023 during Lula’s visit to London.
“It’s like everyone has to be careful and no one can talk about interest rates, except one man that seems to know more than 215 million people,.”
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, referring to central bank president Roberto Campos Neto during a public event in Brasilia, as quoted by Bloomberg, May 4, 2023.
“The Chileans have shot themselves in the foot. While the policy opens up opportunities for more development, it’s going to have the opposite effect because of the uncertainty.”
Reg Spencer, analyst at Canaccord Genuity, on Chile’s new lithium restrictions, as quoted by the Financial Times, May 2, 2023.
“If it was my money, I would go and explore Argentina, Brazil and Africa. You’ll get ripped off in Chile.”
Daniel Jiménez, who spent 28 years at Chile’s SQM, on Chile’s new lithium restrictions, as quoted by the Financial Times, May 2, 2023.
“The attempt to restrict the reforms can lead to a revolution.”
Colombia President Gustavo Petro in May 1, 2023 speech from presidential palace in Bogota, following congressional opposition against his radical health, labor and pension reforms.
“Between the two sides of Petro — the consensus builder that looks for nationwide agreements and the radical with fixed ideas — it is the second that will always win out.”
Alejandro Gaviria, a former Colombian health minister who resigned as education minister in February, on the cuntrys president Gustav oPetro, as quoted by the Financial Times, April 27, 2023.
“Petro is making sure that instead of being the first of many leftwing presidents in Colombia, he will be the only one.”
Sergio Guzmán, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, on Colombia President’s increasingy radical decisions, as quoted by the Financial Times, Apil 26, 2023.
“This case involves calculated extortion arising out of a plain-vanilla private equity transaction. Already having engaged in the flagrant abuse of the Mexican justice system, Servicios Funerarios’ complaint is just the latest step in an escalating scheme.”
Advent in an April 24 filing in Boston federal court in a lawsuit against the owner of Mexican funeral services chain Gayosso, as quoted by Bloomberg, April 25, 2023.
“They screwed their shareholders and all the possible financing routes and kidnapped their creditors.”
Marcelo Farias, a manager at BB Asset and one of the 26-member group that holds 4.7 billion reais in Light debt,as quoted by Bloomberg, April 18, 2023.
“The corruption that almost destroyed Petrobras during Rousseff’s presidency alone should have made her an unsuitable for appointment as small-town dog catcher much less president of an international development bank.”
Jeb Blount on Substack, April 11, 2023, on the appointment of former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff as president of the BRIC Bank.
“In the last three months, we have clearly learned what not to do in an administration with an independent Central Bank.”
Rodrigo Azevedo, a former director of monetary policy at Brazil’s Central Bank, at an event at Bradesco BBI , as quoted by Valor Economico, April 9, 2023.
“Che Guevara has ceded some ideological space to the less racy Thomas Piketty among today’s Latin American left, but the myth of the Cuban revolution lives on.”
Michael Stott, in the Financial Times, April 6, 2023
“This deal is a complex mesh with high political profitability for one side, very high business profitability to the Iberdrola side, and low profitability to the energy sector in Mexico.”
Energy consultant Severo Lopez Mestre on Mexico’s $6 billion purchase of Iberdrola assets, as quoted by Bloomberg, April 5, 2023.
“The government ended up creating a problem where there was none.”
Juan Jensen, a partner at consulting firm 4intelligence, on Lula’s attacks against the Central Bank, as quoted by Valor Economico, April 4, 2023.
“Some of the nearshoring we have seen is happening in spite of Mexico’s policies as opposed to because of them.”
Ryan Berg, Americas Director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, quoted in Forbes, March 22, 2023
“The Peronists have perfected the process of handing over a broken economy to the opposition, who has no choice but to apply drastic measures to resuscitate the investment climate, measures that inevitably hurt the underclasses who yearn again for the economy-destroying subsidies of the Peronists.”
John Price, the Managing Director of Americas Market Intelligence, in analysis on th outlook for Latin America 2023.
“There are no flights, there is no offer, it does not work; a deserted airport is a failure by any vision.”
Rogelio Rodríguez, doctor in aeronautical law, ton the failire of the new $5.4 billion AIFA airport in mexico City, as quoted by El Financiero, March 20, 2023
“It’s just unimaginable that you would be able to replace 60% of exports with tourism and agriculture.”
Luis Fernando Mejia, head of the Bogota-based think-tank Fedesarrollo and a former director of Colombia’s national planning department, on President Petro’s plans to stop new oil and mining exploration, as quoted by Reuters, March 14, 2023.
“Amlo has a done a lot of bad things, but this is the worst, the most dangerous, by far.”
Unnamed prominent Mexican businessman to the Financial Times, February 27, 2022, on the president’s actions weakening the independent electoral agency INE.
“This criticism is yet another headache for the Central Bank. It is a shot in the foot. It hurts the government itself. They weaken the building of credibility of the economic team and generate volatility.”
Brazilian economist and consultant Zeina Latif, on President Lula’s attacks against the Central Bank, as quoted by valor Economico, February 6, 2023.
“Haddad learned on his first day in office that he will be a decorative figure, a sort of task worker for President Lula,”
O Estado de S. Paulo editorial January 4, 2023, on Brazil’s new finance minister Fernando Haddad.
“Unlike what Lula said, the spending cap is not stupidity. Stupidity is saying that the spending cap is stupid.”
Maílson da Nóbrega, a partner at Tendências Consultoria and Brazil’s finance minister between 1988 and 1990, as quoted by Valor Economico, January 4, 2023.
“In general, they have given off the impression of a government that is tone deaf – at least with respect to the types of tones that financial markets want to hear.”
Brazil FX strategists at BMO Capital Markets told clients about country’s new government, according to Reuters, January 4, 2023.
