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Latin America’s Most Valuable Bank Brands
Most innovative companies, election impact on sovereign ratings.
BY LATINVEX STAFF
Brazilian banks Itau, Banco do Brasil, Bradesco and Caixa are the most valuable bank brands in Latin America, according to the latest ranking of the world’s top 500 bank brands from UK-based Brand Finance.
Rounding out the top ten bank brands in Latin America are Banorte (Mexico), Bancolombia, Banco del Estado de Chile, Banco del Chile, Nubank (Brazil) and BCP (Peru).
With a bank brand value of $8.3 billion Itau ranks 40th worldwide, while Banco do Brasil’s $5.5 billion ranks in 61st place.
Banco del Estado de Chile and BCP saw the greatest increase in their brand values, jumping 63% and 38%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Inbursa (Mexico) and Banco de Bogota (Colombia) suffered the worst declines: 21% and 20%, respectively.
MOST INNOVATIVE FIRMS
Fast Company has named Brazilian digital bank Nubank, Mexican retailer Oxxo, Chilean-Brazilian airline LATAM and Colombian digital real estate firm Habi mong the ten most innovative companies in Latin America.
Other companies included are Brazilian healthcare company Alice, Brazilian identification technology company Unico, Mexico’s top pharmacy chain Farmacias Similares, Chilean telehealth company Examedi, Brazilian software company Laborit and Brazilian solar power company Solfacil.
LATAM ELECTIONS IMPACT SOVEREIGN RATINGS
The priorities of new administrations and their effects on credit fundamentals will be a focus of the sovereign credit analysis in those Latin American (LatAm) countries where elections are due this year, Fitch Ratings says.
“Policy continuity appears likely in most cases, but the elections will occur against a backdrop of mediocre growth, increased poverty rates, political polarization and risks of social mobilizations,” it notes. “The composition of new congresses will also influence governability. Fragmentation could hinder progress on reforms and policy adjustments, as highlighted in the the Andean region in recent years.”
General elections are due in the Dominican Republic and Panama in May 2024, Mexico in June and Uruguay in October.
The Positive Outlook on the Dominican Republic’s ‘BB-‘ rating, and the Negative Outlook on Panama’s ‘BBB-‘ rating, highlight that presidential and congressional elections could be consequential for these sovereigns’ rating trajectory, Fitch says.
“If the Dominican Republic’s next administration can muster a consensus to approve the Fiscal Responsibility Law, this should anchor fiscal consolidation and strengthen the fiscal institutional framework, “ it argues. “A possible revenue-enhancing tax reform would help broaden the tax base and reduce the relatively high general government interest/revenue ratio even if most of the additional resources are spent. Such progress, in combination with a robust growth outlook and ongoing progress on governance indicators, could lead to an upgrade.”
Luis Abinader – one of the few business-friendly presidents in Latin America today – is expected to win re-election after leading a strong economy and winning local and international plaudits for his fight against corruption.
Panama’s next government will face major challenges in addressing fiscal pressures to bring down the high sovereign financing requirements and rebuild depleted fiscal space, Fitch says. “This will probably involve difficult policy choices, such as implementing a revenue-enhancing reform, fiscal austerity and a pension reform, “ it says. “The fiscal and growth challenges awaiting Panama’s next government have been compounded by the closure of the Minera Panama copper mine in December 2023.”
The presidential race is highly fragmented, creating uncertainty around governability conditions and hence prospects for reforms, it points out.
José Raúl Mulino, a former security and justice minister, leads a recent poll published by La Prensa and quoted by AFP. Mulino has the backing of former president Ricardo Martinelli, who is holed up in Nicaragua’s embassy after being convicted of money laundering. Other leading candidates include journalist and lawyer Ricardo Lombana and former president Martín Torrijos.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s new administration will face the challenge of implementing a fiscal consolidation strategy given the expected budget deficit of nearly 5% of GDP in 2024, Fitch says.
“This may require a revenue-enhancing reform,” it says. “Crafting a support and turnaround strategy for national oil company Pemex may also be important due to its weak financial profile and the ad hoc government support provided to the company. The government explicitly included, for the first time, planned support for Pemex in the 2024 budget.”
Claudia Sheinbaum, the ruling party Morena’s candidate, leads all polls by a wide margin.
“A Sheinbaum victory would imply broad policy continuity, although uncertainty about a potential Sheinbaum administration’s fiscal and energy sector policies persists,” Fitch says.
Uruguay’s elections in October present the least risk, Fitch argues, given high social and political stability, highlighted in its strong World Bank Governance Indicators.
“Further fiscal consolidation that improves the debt trajectory will be an important challenge for the next government,” it says.
The next president will come from either the opposition Frente Amplio or ruling National Party. The likely presidential candidates from Frente Amplio are either Yamandú Orsi or Montevideo mayor Carolina Cosse, while Álvaro Delgado (presidential secreteray until December) is the likely candidate for the National Party of current president Luis Lacalle.
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