Elections in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Honduras this year.

BY JOACHIM BAMRUD

Latin America is scheduled to hold five elections the next seven months, including congressional elections in Argentina and presidential elections in Chile.

Latinvex asked Michael Shifter, a Senior Fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue and leading Latin America expert, about the outlook for the elections.

ARGENTINA

Latinvex: Will the October congressional elections in Argentina show support for, or weaken, President Javier Milei?

Shifter: Milei and his political party are well-positioned to make gains in October’s congressional elections. The Argentine president remains popular, chiefly because of stabilizing the economy and bringing down inflation. He has followed through with what he promised to do: focus like a laser on the economy.The IMF loan of 20 billion dollars will be welcomed by most Argentines and probably contribute to improving Argentina’s ability to draw investment capital. Recent reports of a drop in poverty levels are also good news that will benefit Milei politically. Right now, there is no serious opposition to Milei, which, combined with his eccentric style and showmanship, has enabled him to dominate the country’s political landscape. So far, concerns about Milei weakening the rule of law and democratic institutions have not gotten much traction in a country preoccupied with economic issues.

CHILE

Latinvex: Will the November presidential elections in Chile mark a return to center-right policies? What have been the key achievements and failures of Gabriel Boric’s presidency?

Shifter: While it is likely that Chile’s presidential elections in November will mark a pendulum swing and a return of a more right-leaning government, it is unclear whether the turn will be towards a more moderate or more radical, hardline candidate. A win by a center-left candidate, though improbable, should not be ruled out. President Boric has had a difficult time governing Chile over the past four years. He lacked political experience, made some mistakes, and had bad luck, particularly on the crime and insecurity issue, which proved very hard to handle. Boric miscalculated and mismanaged the process of overhauling the 1980 constitution. As a result, he squandered significant political capital that weakened his ability to pursue a series of progressive reforms. In the end, however, he was able to get through pension reform, which represents a positive step forward. To his credit, Boric pivoted mid-way through his term, moving towards the center, but he lost support within his coalition and had to deal with a recalcitrant opposition. He respected the country’s laws and operated within the bounds of constitutional rule, which says a lot in the current regional context, as many other presidents are taking steps that undermine or dismantle democracy. On the foreign policy front, Boric stood out as the only leader of the Latin American left who adopted a principled, and not ideological, position on human rights. His legacy will be shaped in part by who succeeds him; it will make a difference if the candidate is moderate or more extreme and with authoritarian tendencies.

ECUADOR

Latinvex: What will be the result on Ecuador’s economic and foreign policy if Luisa Gonzalez wins the Ecuador runoff on April 13?

Shifter: There appears to be little daylight between Luisa Gonzalez and former president Rafael Correa on a range of key policy questions. Gonzalez is clearly from the left and has already said that she will recognize Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela’s president. On economic policy, some believe she will try to pursue the same direction that Correa did from 2007 to 2017. Others, however, argue that since circumstances are dramatically different than they were during the Correa period– with a far tighter fiscal situation and markedly less benign economic outlook – she might become more moderate and pragmatic, less hostile to the business community and private sector. If she is too radical, her presidency would be doomed to fail.

BOLIVIA

Latinvex: Will Bolivia be able to hold a normal presidential election in August or will former president Evo Morales continue to create problems? Who will likely win the elections? Current president Luis Arce or another ruling party MAS candidate or the candidate from the opposition alliance?

Shifter: There is enormous uncertainty surrounding Bolivia’s August general elections. For many Bolivians, who are struggling to deal with significant economic problems such as high inflation and fuel shortages, the bitter political wrangling between president Arce and former president Evo Morales undermines confidence in the country’s political leadership. In response, right-wing, anti-MAS opposition parties have created a united front and will select a single candidate via a poll. It is still unclear if that effort will succeed and who will emerge. The challenge for the opposition will be to appeal to more centrist voters, even some MAS supporters, in a sharply polarized political environment. Overall, the situation in Bolivia is quite volatile and there is a chance of civil unrest that could impact the electoral calendar, as well as the country’s already serious economic and political conditions.

HONDURAS

Latinvex: Who will likely win the November presidential elections in Honduras? What have been the key achievements and failures of Xiomara Castro’s presidency?

Shifter: It is hard to predict who will win the November presidential elections in Honduras. The outcome will depend on a variety of factors, including whether the two opposition candidates of the Liberal and National Parties join forces or run separately. Since the latter seems most likely, the opposition will be divided and – especially since there is no second round — it is possible that the ruling Libre Party candidate, Rixi Moncada, could win, despite the poor performance of the Xiomara Castro administration. Castro has largely failed to deliver on her promises of curbing organized crime and corruption at the highest levels of government. The incumbent Libre Party is expected to use state resources to shore up political support in the months before the election. Whoever wins the November election, Honduras will remain highly polarized, with broad public discontent, and a bleak outlook for substantial, urgently needed reforms.

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