Publish in Special Reports - Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos, Cuban President Raul Castro and FARC leader Rodrigo Londono alias "Timochenko" in Havana, September 23 last year. (Photo: Colombian Government)
Cynthia Arnson, Wilson Institute; Alberto Bernal, XP Securities; Hunter Carter, Arent Fox; Frank Holder, BRG and Margarita Sanchez, Disan. (Latinvex collage)
Colombia’s benefits of a peace accord with FARC.
BY JOACHIM BAMRUD
Colombia may only see a small economic benefit from the likely peace agreement with leftist rebels FARC rebels, but the symbolic value will be greater, experts say.
Colombia’s government has been negotiating a peace agreement with FARC since November 2012. In September last year, President Juan Manuel Santos announced an agreement would be signed by March 23, 2016, but negotiations continue. [On June 23, 2016, FARC and the government signed a cease fire agreement).
Santos estimates that Colombia’s GDP will get an additional 1.5 to 2 percent boost with a peace agreement. Colombia’s National Planning Department (DNP) estimates that GDP could grow annually between 1.1 and 1.9 percent.
Meanwhile, Colombian think tank Fedesarrollo estimates that the cost of implementing the accord will shave off 1 percent of GDP.
In other words: the economic benefit of the FARC peace agreement could be small.
Colombian economist Alberto Bernal, Chief Global and EM Strategist, XP Securities, ....
Keywords: Business, GDP, Infrastructure, Oil,