Publish in Special Reports - Monday, December 15, 2014
Venezuelan capital Caracas. Soon the country's GDP will be smaller than that of Peru. (Photo: Guillermo Ramos Flamerich)
And Peru will pass Venezuela in four years, the IMF forecasts.
BY LATINVEX STAFF
Venezuela has fallen to sixth place among Latin America’s top seven economies, according to a Latinvex analysis of new data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). And in four years, it will likely fall to seventh place, behind Peru.
The revised data comes
as Venezuela’s own government has not published 2014 data on its economy or oil
“Non-official data claim a decline in activity in Venezuela's construction, manufacturing, and retail sectors during 2014,” consulting firm IHS said in an analysis.
The IMF estimates that Venezuela’s economy will contract by 3 percent this year, which will be the worst result in Latin America, according to another Latinvex analysis.
Meanwhile, IHS estimates that oil revenues fell by nearly $9 billion in 2014 compared to the previous year.
As late as 2012,
Venezuela ranked as Latin America’s fourth-largest economy after Brazil, Mexico
and Argentina. However, in 2013, data at the time showed that Colombia had
replaced Venezuela as the fourth-largest
economy, according to a Latinvex analysis.
Venezuela’s Gross Domestic Product this year is estimated at $226.3 billion in current prices in US dollars. Chile’s GDP is $279.7 billion, which makes it the fifth-largest economy in Latin America.
The IMF’s new and revised figures for Venezuela are 34 percent lower than in April, when the fund estimated that Venezuelan GDP stood at $342.1 billion.
The revised data from the IMF shows that Chile actually passed Venezuela last year. The new estimates for 2013 place Venezuela’s GDP at $227.2 billion versus $277 billion for Chile – a figure that was not revised. That contrasts with the April 2014 estimate showing Venezuela’s GDP at $374 billion.
The IMF now also projects that Peru will pass Venezuela in 2018, when Peru’s GDP will likely reach $274.4 billion versus $262.4 billion for Venezuela.
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Latin America’s GDP Ranking 2013