Publish in Perspectives - Monday, December 8, 2014
Chilean president Michelle Bachelet. While her first term was marked by pragmatism and a business-friendly environment, her second time in office is a showcase of socialism and arrogance, the author argues. (Photo: Chile President's Office)
Bachelet’s reforms will roll back the dynamism that made Chile the most resilient economy of Latin America.
BY WALTER T. MOLANO
cloud of pessimism hangs thick over Santiago, despite the gathering spring. The
IPSA equity index is down more than 20 percent from its highs, and trading
volume is off by a comparable amount. The city's top hotels are choked with
private bankers assisting wealthy families move their money abroad.
It has been more than a decade since such pessimism was registered. A large part of the somber mood is reflected in the country's macroeconomic indicators. The level of economic activity during the fourth quarter is expected to be flat. The inflation rate has almost doubled to 5.7 percent. The peso has lost almost 25 percent of its value during the last 18 months. Foreign direct investment has stalled, mainly due to the decline in copper prices and the rise in environmental activism. However, the primary reason behind the economic malaise has been President Michelle Bachelet's sharp move to the left.
her first term was marked by pragmatism and a business-friendly environment,
her second time in office is a showcase of socialism and arrogance. Like her
two presidential peers in the Southern cone of Latin America, President
Bachelet has become more radical and red. Locally referred to as Socialism 2.0,
her policies are a scary throw back to the late 1960's and early 1970's.
However, this time it is being done under a cloak of legitimacy, since the
measures are being passed by the legislature. However, they may as well been
done by decree because there has been very little debate and negotiation. Given
that the president's coalition controls both chambers of congress, the packages
are passed as soon as they are introduced.
The president is determined to expand the role of the state in providing basic services, while reducing the opportunities for the private sector to profit in these areas. There are at least six major initiatives on the table: tax, education, health, pension, labor and constitutional reforms. The first reform has been passed and the second one is well on its way. Many of them involve some form of expropriation and all of them will roll back the dynamism that made Chile the most resilient economy of Latin America.
However, the measures are taking their toll. The rise in pessimism has killed investment and trimmed consumption, thus stalling the economy. The private sector has also passed most of the effects of the tax increases onto the consumer, resulting in the recent inflationary spike. The education reform will eliminate the subsidized private school system, without improving the quality of the programs. The labor reforms will make the work force much more inflexible, which will lead to a rise in the unemployment rate. The health reforms mirrors Obama-care, expanding the role of the state in order to provide universal coverage. The pension reforms marks the first step in allowing the state to tap into the mass of savings that has been accumulated. Last of all, the constitutional reforms will make the changes permanent. It is little wonder why the mood in Chile is sour. So far, the sentiment has not dented its ability to tap the international capital markets. Chilean blue chips were able to raise billions of dollars during the latter part of the year. However, the recent scandals in corporate governance, the government´s shift to the left and the erosion of the country´s economic model will eventually dampen the appetite for Chilean paper.
course, this not the first time that Chile has swung to the left. A hundred
years ago, Chile was the darling of Latin America and a paradigm of capitalism.
It had an enormous concentration of wealth, with some of the richest families
on the planet. Vestiges of those glorious days still dot the Victorian neighborhoods
of Santiago, Valparaiso and Punta Arenas. Nitrates, which were mined in the
Atacama Desert, were one of the most valuable commodities during the Industrial
Revolution. They were used as fertilizers and oxidizing agents in the
production of gunpowder and explosives. With the industrialization of farming
and the mechanization of war, it was in hot demand. However, German chemists
Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch invented a process to synthetically produce nitrates
in 1909. By the late 1920's, the demand for Chilean nitrates was in free
fall. Coupled with the onset of the Great Depression, Chile was one of
the countries that suffered the most during the global downturn. For the next
three decades, the country began a march to the left, culminating in the socialist
reforms of the 1960's and the election of Salvador Allende in 1970.
Chile could be at the start of a similar process. The enormous concentration of wealth has fueled social unrest and marked the return of socialism. This time it will be known as version 2.0.
Walter Molano is head of research at BCP Securities and the author of In the Land of Silver: 200 Years of Argentine Political-Economic Development.